Tool · EX Ladder

Exchange Ladder Calculator

Build Exchange Back or Exchange Lay ladders at progressively better odds, calculating the additional stakes required at each price to maintain a consistent Stake/Kelly ratio as more orders are matched. Use the calculator to avoid over-staking when planning unmatched orders at better prices as the market moves.

Exchange commission: 2.00% · change in Settings
Fixed Kelly multiplier: 100 · change in Settings
Probability▶
%
Starting odds▶
Snapped to nearest Betfair tick.
Type▶
Ladder rows▶
Number of additional orders beyond the baseline.
Baseline Kelly Criterion◀
7.48%
Baseline stake◀
£7.48
#Odds ◀Additional stake ◀Blended net odds ◀Blended Kelly Criterion ◀Total stake ◀
02.20£7.482.187.48%£7.48
12.42£0.262.187.75%£7.75
22.44£0.332.198.07%£8.07
32.46£0.252.208.33%£8.33
42.48£0.312.218.64%£8.64
52.50£0.242.228.88%£8.88
62.52£0.302.239.18%£9.18
72.54£0.232.239.41%£9.41
82.56£0.292.249.71%£9.71
92.58£0.222.259.93%£9.93
102.60£0.282.2610.21%£10.21
How to use this tool
  1. Enter your estimated Probability and Starting Odds, select Exchange Back or Exchange Lay and check your Exchange Commission and Kelly settings.
  2. Choose how many additional orders to include in the ladder. Each tick represents one permitted step on the Betfair Exchange odds ladder.
  3. The tool calculates the target odds and the additional stake required at each price to maintain a consistent Stake/Kelly ratio as more orders are matched.
  4. Review the calculated stakes and resulting position to decide whether the ladder suits your intended approach.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why would I place unmatched orders at better odds on an Exchange?

Placing an order at better odds may provide a more favourable price than the currently available offer.

If the market doesn't move to your selected price, your order will remain unmatched.

If the market does move to your selected price, your order may be matched at those better odds.

Some bettors choose to start with baseline odds and then plan additional orders at better prices anticipating market moves.

What is an Exchange betting ladder?

An Exchange betting ladder is a series of orders placed on the same market at different odds. Each order represents a pending bet that remains unmatched until the market moves and the corresponding price becomes available.

If some of your orders get matched, your combined position shifts as your total stakes and blended odds change.

This calculator helps determine the target odds and additional stakes for each order, with the aim of maintaining a consistent Stake/Kelly ratio as more orders are matched.

How do I avoid over-staking when using multiple unmatched orders?

If several unmatched orders are placed at different prices, multiple orders may eventually be matched. Using the same stake for every order can cause your total stake to increase more than intended.

The Exchange Ladder calculates the additional stake required at each price so that your Stake/Kelly ratio remains consistent as more orders are matched. This accounts for changes in the blended odds and blended Kelly Criterion across the combined position.

What is the Kelly Criterion, and how is the Kelly stake calculated?

The Kelly Criterion is a staking method that uses your estimated probability and the available odds to calculate how much of your staking base to risk when an edge exists.

In this tool, the Kelly Criterion is shown as a percentage. The proposed Baseline Stake converts that percentage into a monetary amount based on your Kelly staking settings. You can choose between a fixed multiplier or fixed bankroll, and select the Kelly fraction you want to use, such as full Kelly or half Kelly.

Kelly staking does not guarantee a profit or a winning bet. Because the calculation depends on your estimated probabilities and Combination Factors, the resulting stake is only as reliable as those estimates. Even with well-founded estimates, individual bets can still lose and results can vary significantly.

What is a tick on the Betfair Exchange?

Betfair Exchange uses fixed odds increments, known as odds ticks, rather than allowing every possible decimal price.

For example, 2.00 is followed by 2.02, so there is no 2.01 price available.

The calculator uses Betfair's odds increments when calculating the target odds for additional ladder orders.

How many ladder rows should I include?

There is no single correct number of additional orders. A shorter ladder keeps your orders closer to the starting odds, while a longer ladder allows you to plan orders across a wider range of prices.

Choose a number of rows based on how far you are prepared to let the market move and how many additional orders you want to consider.

Orders may remain unmatched or only be partially matched, and available prices and liquidity can change.

Does this calculator work with Exchanges other than Betfair?

The calculator is designed around the Betfair Exchange odds ladder and its permitted price increments.

The staking calculations may also be useful when planning orders on other Exchanges, but their available odds increments, commission rates and trading rules may differ.

If you use this calculator for another Exchange, enter its commission rate in Settings and check that the calculated target odds are available on the Exchange you intend to use.

What Exchange commission rate should I use in this tool?

Enter the commission rate charged by the Exchange you use for the relevant market. The default commission in this tool is 2%, but your actual rate may differ depending on your account and Exchange.

You can change the Exchange Commission in Settings to reflect the rate that applies to you.

Formulas

Let p = win prob, c = exchange commission, O = nominal odds. Real (commission- adjusted) odds in the back-equivalent framework:

  • • Sportsbook: Or = O
  • • Exchange Back: Or = (O − 1)(1 − c) + 1
  • • Exchange Lay (uses p' = 1 − p): Or = 1 + (1 − c) / (O − 1)

Each leg's Kelly fraction at real odds Or:
f = (p · Or − 1) / (Or − 1), total stake T = K · f (K from your Kelly settings).

For each new tick we solve T_new so that the combined position satisfies the Kelly closure
T = K · (p · Br − 1) / (Br − 1), where Br is the blended real odds of all legs (locked legs + this one). The additional stake is T_new − T_prev. For Lay the same algebra runs on the equivalent back-on-opposite and the lay stake is liability / (O − 1).

Odds step along the Betfair tick ladder (1.01, …, 2.00, 2.02, …) — up for Back-style, down for Lay.

Information only. Check all calculations before placing bets. Odds and market conditions may change. Bet Tools HQ accepts no responsibility for losses arising from reliance on these results.