Break-even Odds

Break-even odds are the minimum odds you need for a bet to have an expected return equal to your stake, based on your estimated probability of the outcome.

For example, if you estimate that an outcome has a 1 in 3 chance of winning, the break-even odds are 3.00. This is because 1 ÷ 1/3 = 3.00.

At odds above 3.00, your estimated probability would be higher than the probability implied by the price, giving the bet positive expected value (+EV).

Use the table above to find the break-even price for your estimated probability, or use the Formulas section below for more details on how break-even odds are calculated.

A 50% estimated probability means the Sportsbook break-even odds are 2.00.

The required Exchange Back odds are higher because Exchange commission is deducted from your winnings. The Exchange Lay odds shown in the table represent laying the opposite outcome at the price required to break even.

Find the 50% row in the table to compare the Sportsbook, Exchange Back and Exchange Lay break-even prices.

Fair odds are the odds that correspond to your estimated probability, without considering any bookmaker margin or Exchange commission.

Break-even odds are the minimum odds you need to achieve zero expected value after accounting for the costs of the betting method.

For a Sportsbook bet, the break-even odds are the same as your fair odds based on your estimated probability, given that bookmaker margins are already built into the prices offered.

On an Exchange, the break-even odds are higher because Exchange commission reduces your net winnings.

This table shows the break-even odds you need at each probability for both Sportsbook and Exchange betting.

Exchange commission means you need slightly higher odds to break even than you would at a Sportsbook, because some of your winnings are deducted as commission.

For example, if your estimated probability is 50%, the Sportsbook break-even price is 2.00. The required Exchange Back price is higher because Exchange commission reduces your net winnings.

The default Exchange commission in our tool is 2%, but you can change it in Settings if your Exchange charges a different rate. The Exchange figures in the table will update accordingly.

Use the commission rate charged by your Exchange account. The default setting in our tool is 2%, but you can change it in Settings if your Exchange charges a different rate.

Commission is usually charged on your net winnings (profit) in a market rather than your stake. The exact rate depends on the Exchange and your account details.

Betfair Exchange uses fixed odds increments, known as odds ticks, rather than allowing every possible decimal price.

For example, 2.00 is followed by 2.02, so there is no 2.01 price available. If the exact break-even price falls between two available ticks, the Exchange Back or Lay figure in this table is rounded up to the next available Betfair Exchange price.

This ensures the price shown is an actual Exchange price you can select rather than a theoretical price that is not available.

Use the Exchange columns in the table to see the minimum available Exchange price that meets your break-even requirement.

+EV means positive expected value. It means the odds available are higher than the break-even odds for your estimated probability.

For example, if you estimate an outcome has a 55% chance of winning and the break-even odds are 1.82, odds of 2.00 would be +EV based on your estimate.

A +EV bet does not guarantee a win. Your probability estimate could be wrong, and even if it is accurate, individual bets can still lose.

However, if your probability estimates are accurate and you consistently take +EV bets, you would theoretically expect to make a profit over the long term.

Use the break-even odds in this table as the threshold for identifying when available odds become +EV.

Yes. The conversion table works for any betting Exchange.

Simply enter in Settings the commission rate charged by your Exchange, and the tool will calculate equivalent prices based on that rate.

Note, however, that the odds increments that this table considers are based on Betfair Exchange ticks.